fivethirtyeight mlb predictions 2023

2 min read 05-11-2024

FiveThirtyEight's 2023 MLB Predictions: Who Will Rule the Diamond?

The 2023 Major League Baseball season is upon us, and fans everywhere are eager to see their favorite teams battle it out for the World Series. But before the first pitch is thrown, many are turning to experts for predictions. One of the most respected sources for MLB analysis and predictions is FiveThirtyEight, the data-driven website known for its deep dive into statistics and its sophisticated forecasting models.

This year, FiveThirtyEight has made some bold predictions about the 2023 MLB season. Let's dive into the key takeaways and see what they predict for the upcoming campaign:

1. The New York Mets: Reigning Supreme?

FiveThirtyEight's model sees the New York Mets as the favorites to win the World Series, with a 14% chance of taking home the championship trophy. Their impressive roster, featuring stars like Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Max Scherzer, gives them a strong edge on paper.

2. The Houston Astros: Still a Force to be Reckoned With

The Houston Astros are predicted to be the second-most likely team to win the World Series, with a 13% chance. They've been a dominant force in recent years, with a World Series title in 2022, and are widely expected to be contenders again in 2023.

3. The Los Angeles Dodgers: Always in the Mix

The Los Angeles Dodgers, perennial contenders, are predicted to have a 10% chance of winning the World Series. They continue to boast one of the strongest rosters in baseball, with a core of talented players like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Clayton Kershaw.

4. The Atlanta Braves: On the Rise

The Atlanta Braves, who won the World Series in 2021, are predicted to have an 8% chance of winning the championship this year. Despite losing Freddie Freeman to free agency, they've retained a strong core of young talent, led by Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies.

5. The New York Yankees: A Familiar Face in the Playoffs

The New York Yankees, perennial playoff contenders, are predicted to have a 7% chance of winning the World Series. While their offense might not be as potent as in previous years, their strong pitching staff and Aaron Judge's power hitting should keep them in the playoff mix.

Beyond the World Series: Divisional Race Predictions

FiveThirtyEight also provides detailed predictions for each division, outlining the odds of each team making the playoffs. Some interesting highlights include:

American League West: While the Texas Rangers are projected to win the division, the Houston Astros are still predicted to be the top team overall.
National League West: The Los Angeles Dodgers, despite facing a tough division, are projected to win the division and make the playoffs.
National League East: The Atlanta Braves, despite a tough battle with the Mets, are predicted to win the division.

Why FiveThirtyEight Predictions Matter

FiveThirtyEight's predictions are based on a complex model that analyzes historical data, player statistics, team performance, and other relevant factors. This data-driven approach provides a more objective assessment of each team's chances than traditional, subjective predictions.

While no prediction is guaranteed, FiveThirtyEight's detailed analysis and comprehensive model offer a valuable glimpse into the upcoming MLB season. Whether you agree with their predictions or not, they provide a great starting point for your own analysis and discussion.

Now, let the games begin!